Negotiations Through the Eyes of Experts: COP 30

ICLRC researchers Inga Kononovich and Anzhela Shmakova participated as observers in the thirtieth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Belém, Brazil. Below is their perspective on the course and results of the negotiations, held from 10 to 22 November 2025.

How the Negotiations Unfolded

The talks lasted two weeks, first under the Subsidiary Bodies and then at the Conference of the Parties level. Decisions were adopted at the final plenary meeting on 22 November (the texts of the decisions are available on the website). You can read more about the organization of the negotiation process under the UNFCCC in the Center’s publication. The agenda was approved on the first day, largely due to the preparatory work of the COP Presidency during the Leaders’ Summit held on 6–7 November.

However, four agenda items proposed shortly before the COP30 by developing countries were not approved and were moved to presidential consultations due to their significance. These included:

• implementation of the first Global Stocktake outcomes;
• implementation of Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement on developed countries’ financial obligations;
• discussions on climate change related trade-restrictive unilateral measures; and
• responding to the synthesis report on NDC and addressing the 1.5°C ambition and implementation gap.

The consultations resulted in the Global Mutirão decision.

Global Mutirão

“Mutirão” is a Portuguese word derived from the Tupi-Guarani languages, meaning joint work for a common purpose. It became the symbol of the COP30 Presidency’s spirit of cooperation.

The Global Mutirão decision reflects/has reflected the outcomes of presidential consultations on the four pending issues. The most contentious were developed countries’ financial obligations under Article 9.1 and the discussion of unilateral trade measures. Developing countries advocated for the creation of a three-year work programme on Article 9.1 implementation and UNFCCC-level dialogue of unilateral trade-restrictive measures using real policy examples. India, for instance, raised the adverse effects of EU green standards application in supply chains.

The question of phasing out of fossil fuels was also raised but received little attention in the second week. In response, 82 countries held a press conference calling for concrete actions and signed a declaration. Although one iteration of the draft decision included an option for a high-level round table on different national circumstances, pathways and approached with a view to supporting countries to develop just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps, including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels, the final Mutirão text did not.

In response to the NDC synthesis report, many countries emphasised that not all parties had yet submitted their NDCs and that enhanced implementation must take into account developing countries’ limited capacities. Collective ambition should not undermine development.

The first draft of Mutirão appeared during the second week, on Tuesday morning. While not a “cover decision,” it served as an overarching political outcome consolidating unresolved issues. The final text, published on 22 November, included commitments to:

• triple adaptation finance by 2035 without specifying a baseline year; 
• accelerate implementation of updated NDCs (“NDC 3.0”) and launch the Belém Mission to 1.5°C and the Global Implementation Accelerator, with reports to be presented at COP31;
• convene a ministerial round table to discuss the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance and initiate a two-year work programme on Article 9.1 finance;
• launch dialogues on unilateral trade-restrictive measures in cooperation with the WTO, UNCTAD, and ITC in 2026–2027, followed by a summary report in 2028.  

Although excluded from the final text, the fossil fuel phase-out will likely return at COP31. Brazil announced plans to prepare a roadmap, and the first international conference on fossil fuel phase-out is scheduled for April 2026 at the initiative of Colombia and the Netherlands.

Adaptation in Focus

Adaptation dominated COP30’s agenda. It was expected to complete work on indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and to adopt a final decision on National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). The indicators had been developed under the UAE–Belém work programme, with experts proposing 100 indicators in September 2025. Discussions focused on testing of indicators, continuing the Baku roadmap on adaptation, and financing of adaptation actions. The final decision concluded the UAE–Belém programme, adopted a list of 59 adaptation indicators, and launched a two-year Belém–Addis vision to develop guidance for implementing them. A technical report on their application and gaps will be prepared for COP32.

Financial issues dominated the first week: developing countries proposed adaptation finance targets of USD 120 billion and USD 150 billion by 2035. However, no figure was included in the final text; instead, Mutirão reaffirmed the qualitative goal of tripling adaptation finance by 2035.

Other Agenda Items

Significant progress was achieved on the Just Transition Work Programme. A mechanism proposed by developing countries was launched, and its operational design will begin in June 2026. For the first time, draft texts referenced risks linked to mining and processing critical minerals, but the final decision omitted the paragraph after disagreements within the G77 + China group.

Work on the Global Stocktake outcomes was less coordinated. States debated the mere feasibility of the UAE Dialogue due to the duplication of its and GST’s mandates. China summed up the confusion aptly: “Even twins, though similar, pursue different goals.” Eventually, countries agreed to hold the Dialogue in 2026–2027, after which it will conclude.

COP31 Presidency

Although Turkey will host COP31 and its representative will serve as COP31 President, Australian respresentative will act as the “President of Negotiations” — a precedent separating logistical and negotiation roles. Australia will have full negotiating authority, including drafting texts and coordinating with the UNFCCC, while Turkey will handle logistics and the Action Programme. The next COP is expected to prioritise the needs of small island developing states and include a session on climate finance for the Pacific Resilience Fund.