On the Road to Antalya: The Contours of the Future Negotiation Agenda

ICLRC researchers Inga Kononovich and Anzhela Shmakova, acting as observers, took part in the sixty-fourth sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (SB 64). At the sessions of the two Subsidiary Bodies, countries work through the technical details of unresolved issues from previous Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and lay the groundwork for future decisions.

The sessions are a key preparatory stage ahead of the thirty-first Conference of the Parties (COP 31), which will take place in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026. More information on the organization of the UNFCCC negotiation process is available in the Center’s material.

We present Inga’s perspective on the course and outcomes of the negotiations held from 8 to 18 June in Bonn, Germany. Anzhela Shmakova’s piece covers the negotiations on the Belém adaptation indicators and discussions of fossil fuels and the relationship between trade and climate change.

This year in Bonn, I continued to follow discussions on climate finance, most of which took place in mandated events. It is important to note that this issue prevented countries from reaching consensus in Bonn on several negotiation tracks, and it is likely to become one of the main points of contention in the upcoming negotiations in Antalya. In addition, my attention focused on discussions under the Just Transition Work Programme, within which countries attempted to reach consensus on how to operationalize the new just transition mechanism. I was also able to follow discussions on some of the conference’s new and emerging areas, such as the first dialogue on climate and trade and discussions under the technology track.

Climate Finance Is Back at the Center of Attention

Although the official agenda contained only a limited number of items devoted to climate finance, this issue once again became one of the central themes and a strategic, politically sensitive matter shaping the dynamics of many discussions. Active debate unfolded around the new Work Programme on Climate Finance, established at COP 30 in Brazil. Although this programme is still being developed and did not become a part of the official agenda, it immediately brought longstanding disagreements between developed and developing countries to the fore. During the discussions, developing countries insisted that the focus should be solely on the obligations of developed countries under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, the appropriate burden sharing among the donors, and the inclusion of the issue on the official agenda of COP 31. Developed countries, in response, proposed moving beyond Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement and focusing on ways to mobilize private capital to achieve the new collective quantified goal and to broaden the circle of donor countries.

For the First Time in Recent Years, Technology Came to the Forefront of Climate Negotiations

At the Bonn session, countries provisionally agreed to extend the mandate of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) as host of the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN). If this step is formally approved at COP 31 in Antalya, UNEP will continue to serve as host until 2041. During the discussions, it was emphasized that the sustainable operation of the CTCN directly depends on stable and predictable funding. Parties noted the need to work through mechanisms for attracting both traditional and innovative sources of funding, including partnerships with the private sector and multilateral development banks, by COP 31 in Antalya.

In addition, countries at the session discussed ways to strengthen the links between the Technology Mechanism and the Financial Mechanism. It was emphasized that, without agreed financing for technical assistance, technology needs assessments, and the implementation of action plans, advanced technologies will remain inaccessible to those who need them. In this context, particular attention was paid to the role of the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility in supporting technology projects. It was also stressed that the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism should take greater account of the outputs of the Technology Mechanism’s bodies when developing their programmes.

Thus, the technology agenda, which had long remained on the margins, is becoming a central part of the dialogue as an integral element of implementation, closely linked to finance and capacity-building.

Important Work Was Carried Out under the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP)

The main achievement was the provisional agreement on the terms of reference for the review of the JTWP — a key step towards assessing the programme’s effectiveness and defining its future direction. At the same time, work began on the substance of a new institutional instrument adopted at COP 30, the Belém Action Mechanism for Just Transition (2/CMA.7). During the discussions, countries addressed its objectives, functions, structure and possible launch timeline. Ultimately, however, no consensus was reached. The main disagreements among countries centered on the role of non-governmental stakeholders (including trade unions, civil society and Indigenous Peoples) in the work of the mechanism, as well as the principles of financing and distribution of responsibility. Under the most ambitious scenario, the institutional establishment of the mechanism could begin as early as 2027, although this would require intensive work over the next two years.

The First Dialogue on Climate Change and Trade Was Held, with the Participation of the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the International Trade Centre

Participants discussed the prospects and barriers for expanding international trade cooperation in the context of the climate agenda. Particular attention was paid to the distribution of benefits and losses for national economies in light of the introduction of carbon border adjustment mechanisms; intellectual property barriers hindering the import and dissemination of clean technologies; and the harmonization of product carbon-intensity standards. Thus, the issue of the interaction between trade and climate is becoming firmly embedded in the international climate agenda for the next several years.

What Next?

Although the sessions in Bonn are traditionally technical in nature, they are an important stage in preparing the basis for decisions to be agreed at the countries’ main meeting — the Conference of the Parties. Türkiye will host COP 31, while the presidency functions will de facto pass to Australia, which may also affect the dynamics and course of negotiations this year.